Modelling energy sector towards sustainability: pathways, long-term forecast and management scenario A case of East African Countries

Abstract

A fast-growing energy demand is expected in East Africa due to its high population growth and socio-economic activities. However, energy planning is still relatively not developed in the region; hence, the need for robust energy planning policies in the region. The main objective of this study was to model East African energy sector pathways, long-term forecast and management scenarios. Specific objectives were to: develop energy mix model while controlling non-renewable energies; analyze current and future energy balance up to the year 2040; appraise different energy policies of the countries to develop renewable energies and improve energy efficiency; validate the model for long-term energy planning up to the year 2040. This research used Multi- Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) method and Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model (Kenya and Burundi deeply analyzed in this research). Energy options were evaluated against four sustainable dimensions (Economic, Social, Environmental and Technical) combining 17 energy indicators and AHP–TOPSIS technique was applied. Energy policies (universal electrification-UE, efficient lighting- EL, efficient cooking stoves-EFCS and climate smart-low emissions-LE) found to be strategic priorities for the countries were analyzed. GHG emissions were determined in CO2–Equivalent, 100–Year GWP (at point of emissions). Primary data were collected through a survey-questionnaire designed for energy experts in the countries and secondary data were collected from various sources. Results showed robustness of renewable technologies, particularly Solar PV in all analyzed scenarios (economic- privileged, technical-privileged, environmental-privileged, social-privileged, equal- importance). Also, LEAP results showed that total energy demand will keep rising: this was 178,993.9 TJ in 2015 and was projected to 417,980.0 TJ in 2040 for Burundi while it was 685,331.5 TJ in 2015 and projected to 857,518.3 TJ in 2040 for Kenya. From 2015 to 2040, households’ energy demand is characterized by a slow growth with 1.36 times for Kenya and 1.31 times for Burundi; this demonstrated households’ energy demand in saturation mode. Furthermore, households will remain the highest final energy consumers as their consumption was expected to constitute 79.6% and 53.5% of total demand by 2040 for Kenya and Burundi, respectively. EL-policy would enable to save 2,300.9 GWh and 124.6 GWh while EFCS-policy would save 190,556.4 TJ and 101,879.2 TJ by 2040 for Kenya and Burundi, respectively. With the EFCS-policy, 1,787.5 4 thousand-Metric-Tonnes (tmt) and 903.4 tmt CO2–Equivalent would be avoided in comparison to Business-As-Usual (BAUS) by 2040 for Kenya and Burundi, respectively. Under UE-policy, households’ electricity demand was projected to 6,845.0 GWh by 2030 for Kenya against 5,862.5 GWh under BAUS. Similarly, Burundian households’ electricity demand would be 825.7 GWh by 2040 against 536.5 GWh expected under BAUS. LE-policy by phasing out all fossil-fired plants after 2030 was expected to cause Burundi import a significant amount of electricity while this policy would be implemented in Kenya without the need to import. In conclusion, total energy demand of the countries will keep rising and households are expected to remain the main total final energy consumers. The study recommends high adoption of renewable sources, EL-policy and EFCS-policies in the sustainable energy strategies of the countries.