Investigating the link between environmental scarcity and conflict in Darfur

Abstract

Although it is widely acknowledged that environmental factors are seldom, if ever, the sole cause of conflict, there is increasing recognition that the effects of climate change contribute to security risks as a result of changes in environmental conditions and increased competition for natural resources. This paper takes the view that an important impact of these environmental stresses in Darfur was resource scarcity. In turn, increased shrinkage of livelihoods undermined the resilience capacity of the local communities to drought-related shocks, creating opportunities for conflict. The central aim of this paper is to interrogate the resource scarcity-security relationship, focusing primarily on two types of evidence. The first relates to rainfall records, which is primarily associated with supply-induced scarcity. Rainfall patterns showed a declining trend and variability from the mid-1970s through to the 1980s. The second relates to population pressure, which is primarily associated with demand-induced scarcity. On this evidence, demographic trends show that a marked increase in population density since the mid-1970s has put pressure on both the pastoral and agricultural livelihood systems. Placing the above into perspective, this paper provides the basis for a more holistic appreciation of the Darfur problem, and for looking at the ongoing conflict in depth.