Abstract:
Numerous international agreements aimed at reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by signatory
countries have been ratified in an attempt to combat the adverse varied impacts of climate change and
promote resource use sustainability. Grass is an important resource that livestock, wildlife and human
beings depend on and is largely influenced by climatic conditions. The grass in Kenya supports the key
economic activities of livestock and wildlife-based tourism. This significant contribution to gross
domestic product underscored the need to model the impacts of climate change on the grass for the
country to promote sustainable development. The study aimed at modelling the impacts of projected
climate variations on the spatial and temporal distribution of grass in the base-year (1950–2000) and
the future climatic periods of the years 2050 and 2070. The spatial data was sourced from United States
Geological Survey, International Livestock Research Institute, and Africover Project processed and
analysed in ArcGIS, DIVA-GIS, Maxent and Map Comparison Kit softwares. The models outputs
were significant with the least area under receiver-operator curve (AUC) values of 0.754. The study
found out that the 2050 climate will decrease grass niche suitability by 44.99%, the unsuitable will
increase by 87.01%, the grass niche suitability location will shift by 76.7% and the category areas
change by 46.4%; the 2070 climatic period grass niche suitability will shrink by 55.21%, the unsuitable
category increase by 106.80%, the location change will be 77.8% and the category areas will vary by
66.0%. The research concluded that the rangeland vegetation (grass) will decline and shift location in
the both future climatic periods.
