Are rainfall intensities changing, could it be climate change and what could be the impact on Engineering hydrologic design and structures?

Abstract

Climate change is a contentious topic. There is evidence of climatic shifts globally. The change in climate over time is natural and expected. However, industrialization during the past century may have influenced variations exceeding natural cyclic change. This paper presents findings on research done to determine if there has been a significant change in intensity and amount of rainfall received in Eldoret town occasioned by recent flooding and to stimulate further research. Engineers have a duty in the determination of peak storm discharge for sizing of hydrologic structures for safe conveyance of discharge. Hydrologic design use either empirical or deterministic methods based on historical data. Based on the recent weather patterns, the question is whether the historical data can still be used as a basis for providing accurate possible future events for hydrologic design. Different analytical methods were formulated to investigate different rainfall indices for 50 years using data from Eldoret Meteorological Station. Results are indicative of decreasing but more intense rainfall events with variations exceeding natural climatic cycles previously experienced. Could this be climate change? Despite the localized nature of this research, it is indicative of the global change in rainfall trends being experienced.