Abstract:
Background: Malaria is a serious disease and still remains a public health problem in many parts of Nigeria.
Objectives: The aim of this study was to describe malaria transmission trends and analyzed the impact of
climatic factors on malaria transmission in the highlands of Plateau State, Central Nigeria.
Methods: The study was a retrospective survey which used archival data of climate parameters and medical
case records on malaria. Rainfall, relative humidity, and temperature data were obtained from the nearest
weather stations to the study locations from 1980 to 2015. Data on reported malaria cases were collected
from general hospitals in the selected local government areas (LGAs) from 2003 to 2015. Generalized
Additive Models were used to model trends in malaria incidences over time, and it is lagged association
with climatic factors.
Results: The results show a significant cyclical trend in malaria incidence in all the study areas (P < 0.001).
The association between monthly malaria cases and mean monthly temperature, rainfall, and relative
humidity show significant association at different time lags and locations.
Conclusion: Our findings suggest that climatic factors are among the major determinants of malaria
transmission in the highlands of Plateau state except in Jos‐North LGA where the low model deviance
explained (35.4%) could mean that there are other important factors driving malaria transmission in the
area other than climatic factors.
