Impacts of climate change and variability on Small-Scale Irish Potato production in Ndaragwa Agro-Ecological Zone, Nyandarua County, Kenya

Abstract

There is growing evidence of climate change and variability with indicator such as floods, extremely high temperatures, frosts, famine and low temperature. These extreme events of Climate change and variability have proved to pose serious risks that have adverse consequences on production of Irish potato. Despite such risks, there have been few studies on climate change effect on Irish potatoes production and particularly from the farmer’s perspective especially in semi-arid zones of Kenya. This study therefore was designed to establish the impacts of climate change and variability on small scale Irish potato production in Ndaragwa. The specific objectives were: to analyze the nature of climate change and variability in Ndaragwa agro-ecological zone; to determine the small scale Irish potato farmer’s awareness of climate change and variability in Ndaragwa; to assess small scale Irish potato farmer’s perception of the impacts of climate change and Variability on Irish potato production; to establish the relationship between Irish potato production and climate elements in Ndaragwa and to establish the practices and technologies related to climate change adaptation on Irish potato production among the communities in Ndaragwa . The study adopted a cross-sectional survey of respondents from the four wards of Ndaragwa constituency. The sample size of 398 households was selected using Krejcie and Morgan’s table of determination. Random and systematic sampling was used to obtain the household respondents who completed the semistructured questionnaire. The questionnaire was supplemented with 5 Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) and 10 Key Informant Interviews (KIIs). The study used resilience theory in synthesizing a conceptual framework and the analysis was done using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) Computer software version 23. The study established that climate change and variability is indeed taking place in Ndaragwa with cases of increased temperatures and erratic rainfall being observed from the analysis. The majority (95.5%) of the respondents are aware that climate change is taking place, and when the respondents were asked how they perceive climatic event in their area over 10 years period, all of them said there have been an increase in temperature while 86.4% perceived decrease in rainfall. However, majority 75.7% of the residents are not aware that climate variability is taking place. The study further found that, respondents perceived the most experienced climate change risks as frost, drought and water scarcity, pest and diseases, heavy rain and hails, increased temperatures and floods and linked the risks with the effect of Irish potato production mainly through wilting and drying of Irish potato, poor production, increased pest and diseases, crop failure due to frost bite, rotting of Irish potatoes, poor germination, poor quality tubers, food shortage and also fast growth of Irish potato. Data subjected to inferential statistics using correlation analysis establish a strong positive relationship (r= 0.979) between long rains and r=0.896 in short rains and production. In temperatures, a weak positive relationship r=0.237 was established between minimum temperature and production while a negative relationship r= -0.381 between maximum temperatures and production was established. The study further established that majority of the respondents (82.1%), are practicing different technologies to adapt to climate change while only 17.9% have not yet changed their faming systems. Among the most used adaptation strategies include: practicing mixed faming, livestock keeping, changing planting dates, using of inorganic fertilizers/ use of chemicals, planting drought resistant potato variety and irrigating potato farms. The study concluded that climate change and variability is taking place and such changes are perceived to have serious effects to Irish potato production and therefore the study recommended that an accurate and timely weather focus should be provided in advance to help farmers prepare for any risks related to extreme weather events. There is also need for the government to initiate crop insurance to insure farmers in case of total crop failure. More so, more agricultural extension officers should be employed to educate farmers on the modern ways of farming to cope with climate change. This will improve their production as they will embrace using more resistant varieties as well as using improved technology.