Perceived effects of Climate Change on Tourism Development around Lake Nakuru National Park, Kenya.

Abstract

Climate change is an environmental challenge facing the world today. This is one of the most serious threats to the society, economy and environment and has lately become an international agenda. Climate change has attracted much attention and participation in the world, especially in Kenya with the emerging effects of climate change on some of the tourism attractions and destinations. Consequently, African countries have begun to realize the constant uncertainties of agricultural exports due to climate change and developmental pressures and have so far shifted their focus to tourism as a new source of economic growth. Tourism plays a major role in boosting the economies of most developing countries in Africa including Kenya. However, climate change is increasingly becoming evident in Kenya, negatively impacting the tourism industry. This is mainly through incidences of rapid changes in rainfall patterns, floods, storms, rising temperatures, human activities and drought. Thus, this affects the tourism industry as well as the communities depending upon it. In this regard, the study investigated perceived effects of climate change on tourism development in Kenya. Further, it identified ways such as promotion of climate friendly and climate proof holiday alternatives so as to adopt tourism development to climate change effects. The study aimed at accomplishing three specific objectives namely; to determine the perceived effects of rapid changes in rainfall patterns on tourism development in Lake Nakuru National Park; To asses the perceived effects of rising temperatures on tourism development in Lake Nakuru National Park and; To analyze if human activities affects tourism development in Lake Nakuru National Park. The study adopted descriptive research design. The local community members living adjacent to LNNP and the employees of LNNP were targeted for data collection. The local community comprised of about 8,000 while the LNNP employees were 200 drawn from various departments. A total of 257 respondents were involved in the study using stratified and simple random sampling techniques. Questionnaires were administered to the local community members living adjacent to LNNP and the employees of LNNP. Secondary sources of data specifically internet, books and journals were used. Primary data that was collected tabulated and analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS). Presentation of research outcome was done in form of descriptive statistics such as percentages, frequencies, means and tables while inferential statistics such as chi-square and multiple regression were utilized. The research findings indicated that rapid changes in rainfall patterns, incidences of rising temperatures and human activities negatively affects tourism development as indicated by means of 3.575, 3.605 and 4.22 respectively. In addition, a high ANOVA value of 53.88 was significant. This is also enhanced by the model fit which gives 68.0% implying for every percentage increase in climate change, it explains 68.0% of tourism development in LNNP. The study recommends promotion of a variety of outdoor and indoor tourism products that avoid the vulgarities of weather, use of renewable energy resources, promotion of low-carbon technologies and initiating adoption strategies to curb negative climate change effects on tourism development.