Predicting health insurance uptake in Kenya using Random Forest: An analysis of socioeconomic and demographic factors

Abstract

Universal Health Coverage (UHC) is a global objective aimed at providing equitable access to essential and cost-effective healthcare services, irrespective of individuals’ financial circumstances. Despite efforts to promote UHC through health insurance programs, the uptake in Kenya remains low. This study aimed to explore the factors influencing health insurance uptake and offer insights for effective policy development and outreach programs. The study utilized machine learning techniques on data from the 2021 FinAccess Survey. Among the models examined, the Random Forest model demonstrated the highest performance with notable metrics, including a high Kappa score of 0.9273, Recall score of 0.9640, F1 score of 0.9636, and Accuracy of 0.9636. The study identified several crucial predictors of health insurance uptake, ranked in ascending order of importance by the optimal model, including poverty vulnerability, social security usage, income, education, and marital status. The results suggest that affordability is a significant barrier to health insurance uptake. The study highlights the need to address affordability challenges and implement targeted interventions to improve health insurance uptake in Kenya, thereby advancing progress towards achieving Universal Health Coverage (UHC) and ensuring universal access to quality healthcare services.