Assessing climate induced risks to rainfed crop production in arid and semi arid Kenya : a case study of the lower Tana basin

Abstract

Historical rainfall patterns with direct relevance to rainfed crop production are monitored for the lower Tana basin of Kenya to assess risks to crop production. Long term daily rainfall from six weather stations and key crop yields are analysed. Approximately 70 percent of this area receives mean rainfall of below 500 mm, posing a strong risk to rainfed crop production. Cassava and mangoes production are exceptionally resilient to changing climate. Farmers should maximize production opportunities of climate resilient crops, while the government creates appropriate policies to address marketing and value addition.