A demand analysis for sahiwal breeding animals from the national sahiwal stud (NSS) between 1971 and 2007

Abstract

The main objective of this working paper is to trace the development of demand for Sahiwal breeding stock over the period 1971-2007. Such an analysis will enhance our understanding of what has happened on the demand side within the study period. There is only a handful of Sahiwal breeding farms existing in the country, which implies that a particular market structure exists. This paper thus traces the likely evolution of demand and provides some insights on what has happened over the period since 1971. The year 1971 was upon decided as a starting point for the simple pragmatic reason that data for earlier years may not be available. Demand indicators assembled from the records at KARI-Naivasha are used to establish the trends of demand in order to predict the likely trajectory of demand in the near future. Time series analysis of data shows the probability of demand for bulls to have been on a downward trend while for heifers, it has been increasing over time. Also critical in this result is that the probability for heifer crosses is soon catching up with demand for heifers and bulls and given these trends, this may be the animal in greatest demand. Results for average request sizes are mixed with an increase in the size of requests for bulls and heifer crosses until 1990s and a drop in the size of requests since. Some parts of the country also appear to have dropped off, notably Coast Province while others (North Eastern) are rare demand centres. A second part of the analysis, which involves the estimation of models that explain these trends, provides a framework within which the role of important demand shifting parameters such as prices, production systems and distances is determined in greater detail.