Determinants of food security and food demand estimation in sugarcane and tobacco growing zones in Migori County

Abstract

Determinants of food security and its accurate measurement has posed a serious problem to development in Kenya. The level of food insecurity in Migori County is 34%. The general objective of the study was to evaluate determinants of food security and food demand estimation in sugarcane and tobacco growing zones in Migori county. The specific objectives of this study were to evaluate household food security determinants such as land size, age and off-farm income in sugarcane production zones and tobacco production zones in Migori County and to estimate Marshallian (uncompensated) elasticity on aggregated foods such as legumes, livestock products and cereals. The study was guided by consumer theory and was done in Uriri and Kuria sub counties in Migori County and used a cross survey design. The target population consisted of 238320 people. A sample size of 396 was determined using Yamane formula. Multistage sampling technique was applied to select the sampled households. The study used both primary and secondary data. Primary data was collected through self-administered structured questionnaires. Household Food Insecurity Access Scale and Linear Approximate Almost Ideal Demand System framework of analysis were used to analyze the data. Results showed 18.52% of the households were food secure, 38.89% severely food insecure, mildly food insecure households and moderately food insecure households were 9.26% and 33.33% respectively. Households that produce tobacco were 15.73% food secure and severely food insecure at 46.07%. Households that produce sugarcane were 18.97% and 44.83% severely food insecure. The findings revealed sugarcane and tobacco production does significantly affect food security in sugarcane and tobacco growing zones. The study showed that food security status was better in households that did not produce either commodity, sugarcane or tobacco. Tobacco, sugarcane, and unemployment were significant at 0.001. Price index and household size were significant at 0.001 after the estimation of food demand of households in Migori County. The largest budget share fell to livestock products at 30% while the least to cereals at 3%. The food categories according to expenditure elasticity were elastic products. All the Marshallian(uncompensated) elasticities were negative as expected. The study concluded that sugarcane and tobacco production had a negative impact on the state of food security in sugarcane and tobacco growing zones of Migori County while prices of food crops had positive influence in the demand of aggregated foods. The county government should establish short and long term plans for employment opportunities to the youths, as the study revealed, households who had members employed or engaged on off-farm activities were food secure. Estimates of consumer and producer demand show effect of prices and total expenditure on consumer behavior thus helps policy makers predict purchasing choices and decision of consumers and help design such policies.