Integrating seasonal climate variability in sustainable agricultural planning of Lake Victoria Basin in Kenya

Abstract

Variability in agro-climatic parameters is increasingly a source of concern in the rainfed agricultural regions of the world. To a large extent, Kenya relies on rainfed agriculture for her food requirements. However, the agro-climatic characteristics within the Lake Victoria basin region of Kenya are quite variable. This study evaluated the variability of seasonal agro-climatic parameters in Lake Victoria basin region in order to understand how growing seasons influence sustainable agricultural planning. To evaluate these characteristics, analyses of the dry spells, reference evapotranspiration (ETo), rainfall characteristics (amount, onset, cessation and length) were done using H614 maize variety as the reference crop. Dry spells were analyzed using a daily rainfall threshold (DRT) of 5 mm, and dry spell trends interpolated in GIS. ETo was obtained using the ETo calculator while the rainfall characteristics were analyzed using the RAIN software package combined with descriptive methods. The results reveal that there exist variability in all agro-climatic parameters analyzed. It is shown that proper integration of agro- climatic variability into seasonal agricultural planning is needed for sustainable agricultural production. Re-introduction of indigenous crops will heavily depend on access to climate knowledge and proper dissemination of results, through technical advisory and extension services.