East Africa’s renewable energy diversity landscape: a case of Kenya’s potential, progress and future prospects

Abstract

East Africa holds enormous renewable energy (RE) resources, including solar, wind, geothermal, hydroelectric power and green hydrogen, yet there remains a substantial gap in harnessing these resources to meet rising energy demands and mitigate climate change. This study focuses on Kenya, aiming to assess its renewable energy potential, examine current infrastructure, and chart future paths for sustainable development. Geothermal energy makes up 28.8% of Kenya's total installed capacity (3,264.42 MW), with hydro, wind, solar, and bio-energy contributing 25.5%, 13.3%, 7.4%, and 0.1%, respectively, accounting for about 75% of the total generation. Despite this, utilization rates are low: hydro at 10.7%, geothermal at 9.4%, wind at 7.3%, solar at 1.6%, and bio-energy at 1.5%, revealing substantial underutilization. Kenya currently generates 2453.9 MW of RE, with ongoing projects poised to raise this capacity to 3982.9 MW, inclusive of those under development. Compared to other East African countries, Kenya leads, with Uganda at 1,245.5 MW, Tanzania at 848 MW, Burundi at 46.7 MW, Rwanda at 166.7 MW, and South Sudan at 74 MW. By 2032, Kenya aims to add 350–450 MW of Green Hydrogen power and 150–250 MW of electrolyzer capacity to replace 50% (300,000–400,000 tonnes annually) of nitrogen fertilizer imports. The study underscores the need for greater investment in infrastructure, research, and capacity building to unlock East Africa’s renewable energy potential, highlighting that strategic partnerships and investor collaboration are crucial for closing the capacity-to-use gap and achieving a sustainable energy future for the region and globally.