Analysis of climate change impacts on plant biodiversity and livelihoods among Maasai women in Narok County, Kenya

Abstract

Climate change poses critical threats to plant biodiversity and pastoral livelihoods in sub-Saharan Africa, yet knowledge gaps persist regarding gender-differentiated impacts of climate-biodiversity interactions on women's livelihood vulnerability. This study assessed climate change impacts on plant species diversity and implications for Maasai women's livelihoods in Narok County, Kenya. A mixed-methods convergent design was employed, integrating quantitative climate data analysis (1990-2020), systematic botanical surveys, structured questionnaires (n=100 Maasai women), and qualitative assessments through focus group discussions (n=24 groups) and key informant interviews (n=15 traditional experts). Climate data from Kenya Meteorological Department and NASA POWER database were analyzed using Mann- Kendall trend tests and Sen's slope estimators. Ethnobotanical surveys utilized systematic transect-quadrat sampling across eight locations. Vulnerability assessment employed Hahn's Livelihood Vulnerability Index framework. Results revealed statistically significant warming of 0.35°C per decade (Mann-Kendall τ=0.312, p<0.01) with extreme temperature events reaching 2.35°C above baseline. Precipitation showed high inter-annual variability (coefficient of variation=31.2%) with significant seasonal shifts including September increases (τ=0.338, p=0.009) and February decreases approaching significance (τ=-0.251, p=0.054). Botanical surveys documented 89 plant species across 33 families, with medicinal uses dominating (36% of species), followed by construction materials (13%) and fodder (11%). Diversity indices indicated moderate levels (Shannon-Weiner H'=1.335; Simpson's D=0.421). Critical conservation concerns emerged with 31 species (35%) occurring in single locations and 25 species at critically low densities, indicating high extinction risk. The Climate Vulnerability Index (4.4) demonstrated moderate vulnerability, with strong adaptive capacity (10.4) buffering high plant-based sensitivity (3.8) and moderate climate exposure (2.2). Climate awareness was exceptionally high (91% of respondents), with strong correspondence between women's perceptions and meteorological data validating traditional ecological knowledge systems. The study conclusively demonstrates that climate change significantly impacts plant biodiversity with direct implications for Maasai women's livelihoods. Despite strong traditional knowledge and social capital through cooperatives, communities face climate risks and biodiversity loss that threaten healthcare access, food security, and cultural practices. Key recommendations include establishing community conservancies with women as primary managers, implementing climate-smart plant management integrating traditional and scientific knowledge, strengthening women's cooperatives for economic resilience, developing integrated climate information systems, and creating intergenerational knowledge transfer programs. These findings advance understanding of the climate-biodiversity-gender nexus and inform evidence-based policy interventions for pastoral communities navigating climate uncertainty.